Good morning New York,
FT ALPHAVILLE
Some observations and oddities in China's Q2 GDP: China's Q2 GDP growth was 7.5%, the second consecutive quarter of slower growth, underscoring the possibility that the economy may miss official targets for the first time in 15 years. The figure just met the official GDP target for 2013 and was in line with median consensus forecasts from both Bloomberg and Reuters surveys, although the consensus had fallen from 7.8% in the past month. (Financial Times) And as Kate noted, there are several 'puzzling details' to add. First, the way that capital formation conveniently soared to make up a decline in export growth and second, the deflator.
China's GDP and the investment factor: Kate's already noted some of the oddities in China's latest GDP data. But, as Izzy said, it's worth re-emphasising the ongoing contribution of investment to the figures. As Capital Economics observed on Monday, the bad news about the data really is that China's economy shows no signs of weaning itself off its reliance on investment... while the rise of Bitcoin in China says quite a bit about the renminbi.
NEWS
Chinese police probe GSK deals: Chinese police are probing more than Rmb3bn ($489m) of transactions by GlaxoSmithKline dating back to 2007, according to the chief investigator. Gao Feng, the lead investigator, on Monday said police had found evidence of illegal behaviour in some of the transactions, which involved more than 700 travel agencies and consultancies. "We found that bribery is a core part of the activities of the company," said Mr Gao. "To boost their prices and sales, the company performed illegal actions." (Financial Times)
Apple is hiring 'aggressively' for its iWatch development, according to people familiar with Apple's plans for the wearable device. (Financial Times)
JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs are seeking to sell their metal warehousing units just three years after their controversial entry to the industry, even as a proposed LME rule change is likely to reduce the attractiveness of the business. "Both banks have informally started sounding out buyers for their warehousing subsidiaries in recent months, people familiar with the matter told the Financial Times." (Financial Times)
G20 finance ministers plan to launch a new phase of the international corporate tax crackdown this week even as UK business leaders are warning their government to resist "radical new solutions" to profit shifting by multinationals. (Financial Times)
"The lira headed for its highest level in almost a week as the Turkish central bank said it may raise interest rates this month." (Bloomberg)
Japan PM Shinzo Abe on track for hefty election win: "Voter preference polls taken on Saturday and Sunday and published by the Asahi and Mainichi dailies showed that 37 to 43 percent of voters wanted to vote for the LDP. Such support meant that, along with coalition partner the New Komeito, the LDP would likely win a majority in the upper house. It would also spell an end to the "twisted parliament" in which the opposition controls the upper house, hampering policy implementation, even if Abe's commitment to growth-generating and potentially painful reforms such as deregulation remains in doubt." (Reuters)
More signs of UK house price rises: Rightmove said the average asking price for properties listed on its website rose 0.3% in July from June to a new record high of £253,658. "The overall increase was largely fueled by a 12% year-on-year rise in asking prices in London." (Wall Street Journal)
"In one of the first lawsuits to go to trial involving Bernard L. Madoff's massive fraud, a group of investors is nearing a settlement with a Connecticut bank that they said should have uncovered the Ponzi scheme years before it collapsed, according to a lawyer involved in the cases whose clients aren't settling. The tentative settlement, reached just as the two sides were about to deliver closing arguments, may return a fraction of the $60 million that the investors said they lost. But any sums could be a blow for the bank, Connecticut Community Bank and its branch, Westport National Bank, which are controlled by William R. Berkley, chairman of a large insurance company." (Wall Street Journal)
Markets: Global equities rose and the currencies of commodity exporters such as Australia's dollar firmed, as China's second-quarter growth data met official forecasts. The world's second-largest economy expanded by 7.5 per cent in the second quarter. That was a second consecutive quarter of weaker growth, which confirmed the slowdown to 7.7 per cent in the three months to April was not temporary. London's FTSE 100 has opened up 0.6 per cent, while the FTSE Eurofirst 300 is up 0.5 per cent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index had responded positively to the Chinese data release but has since reversed gains, and is down 0.2 per cent. On the Chinese mainland the Shanghai Composite gained 1 per cent and the Shenzhen Composite rose 2.2 per cent. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday according to the FT's Global Markets Overview.
